Monday, April 18, 2011

Box-Office Report - Week of 15 April 2011

Last week was relatively slow at the box-office, with only two major feature films opening : "Rio" and "Scre4m". The bulk of it was sustained by previous releases that managed to hold on in the top 10 with decent earnings. Let's take a look at the top 10 :

  • Opening straight at #1 is "Rio", the animated feature from 20th Century Fox and the team that brought us "Ice Age" and will not let us forget it. During the first three-day run it managed to take in a cool $40M. It might not be spectacular by Pixar standards ("The Incredibles" opened with $70M), or even by "Ice Age" standards (the first one opened with a slightly better $46M), but it's still a solid amount. Positive reviews and possible word-of-mouth effect might help it hold steady and pass the $100M marker to as far as $130-140M (similar to "Rango") by the end of its top 10 stay.

  • Also new at #2 is "Scream 4", the third sequel in Wes Craven's slasher series. Its three-day cume was a rather disappointing $19M, which makes this the third in the series in terms of opening week-end earnings. "Scream" opened with $6M, "Scream 2" with $33M and "Scream 3" with $34M. It can be concluded that people have had enough of sequels and this franchise in particular. It looks like it will finish somewhere around $55-60M, that is if it doesn't bleed too much in the following weeks.

  • Returning for a third time is “Hop”, which doesn't rime with flop. However, the Easter family film did do worse this week, losing two spots in the top 10 and $10M compared to the previous week-end. It's current week-end return stands at $11M and its overall cume at $82.6M. Still, it's done very well and has proved to be a profitable enterprise, despite scathing reviews. It stands a strong chance of reaching $100M in the next two-three weeks, but will probably stop there.

  • Soul Surfer”, enters its second week in the top 10 still at #4, an impressive feat for a small film like this. Dropping only $3M to $7.4M this last week-end, it beat out two other movies released at the same time : “Arthur” and “Hanna”. With an overall return of $20M, it has already recovered its $18M budget and looks to finish at around $30-35M.

  • #5 finds "Hanna" having a rough week-end. Now losing $5M compared to its $12M opening week-end, which puts its three-day cume to $7.3M and a ten day total of $23M, it's getting really close to earning back its $30M investment, but might not manage to take it any further. It's just losing too much money per week-end. It may finish at around $30-35M, as it exits the top 10 in the following weeks. This makes the second movie (along with "Soul Surfer") to surpass "Arthur", after both of them landed below that movie on their opening week-end.

  • And speaking of "Arthur", here he is at #6, a sudden drop from #2 on the previous week-end, and a far inferior $6.9M during these last three days, compared to its $12.6M opening week-end. Already in its second week of release (10 days), it has managed to collect an overall $22M, making it really difficult to recoup its $40M budget. Never mind making a profit. Mounting competition and plenty of old releases that seem to be doing much better will push this one off the top 10 in a week or two.

  • James Wan's horror movie "Insidious" is still as healthy as can be at #7. Losing only about $3M from the previous week-end ($9.7M), it now holds a $6.86M gross over the last three days and a 17-day total of $36M, on a $1M budget. After turning a handsome profit, "Insidious" has nothing else to do but enjoy its stay in the top 10. It still has a good shot of finishing its theatrical run with around $50M in its pocket.

  • At #8, the sci-fi thriller "Source Code" struggles to fight off the competition. Falling only one spot from the previous week, the movie has managed to stabilize its week-end loss. For the last three days it earned $6.3M compared to the previous $9M week-end, which makes it just a $3M difference, a lot better than the $6M it lost on the week of April 8. It has already recuperated its $32M budget and is finally seeing some profit. It might not be too late either, as it may still have one or two more weeks in the top 10. It now depends on how well the other movies will do. It could finish at $45-50M if it can hold its ground.

  • Dropping 3 spots to #9 is the embarrassing flop "Your Highness". The raunchy medieval comedy starring James Franco, Danny McBride and Natalie Portman has lost $6M in the last three days, compared to its (weak) $9M opening week-end. With a ridiculous $50M budget it looks like my initial prediction of the movie reaching a total sum of $35-40M was absurdly optimistic. As its total now stands at $16M, it can only hope to reach as far as $25M, but not necessarily while in the top 10, as its week-end gross will most likely not warrant another week in the first ten movies at the box-office. Now that's a flop if ever I saw one.

  • Returning once more and probably for the last time is "Limitless" at #10. With $3.7M over the last three-days, compared to $5.6M in the same time-frame a week ago, it's incredibly stubborn about staying in the top 10. Its 30-day total is now $69M. It will surely exit the top 10, but will go on to grab some cash for a few more weeks, probably finishing at around $80M, all on an estimated budget of $27M.

The movies that exited the Top 10 are : "Diary of a Wimpy Kid" and "The Lincoln Lawyer".

Here is the Top 10 for the week of 8 April 2011 :

1. Rio
Weekend : $40M
Total : $40M

2. Scream 4
Weekend : $19.3M
Total : $19.3M

3. Hop
Weekend : $11.2M  
Total : $82.6M

4. Soul Surfer
Weekend : $7.4M   
Total : $20M

5. Hanna
Weekend : $7.33M  
Total : $23M

6. Arthur
Weekend : $6.94M  
Total : $22M

7. Insidious
Weekend : $6.86M    
Total : $36M

8. Source Code
Weekend : $6.3M    
Total : $37M

9. Your Highness
Weekend : $3.89M
Total : $16M

10. Limitless
Weekend : $3.79M  
Total : $69.7M


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